Tech Signals: 2025: The Year in LLMs
Investments in large language models (LLMs) are projected to surge in 2025, driven by advancements in AI scalability and efficiency. Analysis of eight signals indicates a strategic shift towards integrating LLMs in enterprise solutions, promising significant market growth.
#1 - Top Signal
2025: The Year in LLMs
76.5/100Simon Willison’s 2025 review argues the dominant capability shift was “reasoning” (RLVR/inference-scaling) spreading from OpenAI’s o1 (Sep 2024) to most major labs in 2025, often with adjustable “reasoning dials.” The practical unlock he highlights is not puzzle-solving but tool-driving: reasoning models plan multi-step actions, execute tools, and revise plans—making AI-assisted search and complex code debugging materially better. Hacker News commenters largely agree the pace is unusually fast (ChatGPT only since Nov 2022) while also raising operational concerns about overuse and safety boundaries (e.g., “YOLO mode” mitigations via OS permissions). The clearest near-term product gap is secure, reliable tool execution for coding/automation agents—especially for teams that want local or constrained execution without sacrificing tool-calling reliability.
Key Facts:
- Title: “2025: The Year in LLMs”; Source: hacker_news; URL: https://simonwillison.net/2025/Dec/31/the-year-in-llms/
- The post is the third annual review in the series, following “Stuff we figured out about AI in 2023” and “Things we learned about LLMs in 2024.”
- Willison frames 2025 around multiple trends, including “the year of reasoning,” “the year of agents,” “coding agents,” “LLMs on the command-line,” “$200/month subscriptions,” and “local models got good, but cloud models got even better.”
- OpenAI kicked off the “reasoning” wave with o1 and o1-mini in Sep 2024, then doubled down with o3, o3-mini, and o4-mini in early 2025.
Also Noteworthy Today
As 2025 marks a pivotal year for advancements in large language models, it's crucial to consider how innovations in technology are influencing a range of industries. For instance, India's Arya.ag demonstrates resilience and profitability in the agricultural sector despite falling global crop prices, while Linux's improved reputation signals shifts in software development practices.
Even as global crop prices fall, India’s Arya.ag is attracting investors — and staying profitable
Techcrunch · Read Original
India’s Arya.ag is attracting capital and staying profitable despite falling global crop prices by focusing on warehousing + collateralized lending rather than taking directional commodity risk. The company raised an $81M all-equity Series D led by GEF Capital Partners, with 70%+ as primary capital. Arya.ag claims it stores ~$3B of grain annually (~3% of India’s output) and facilitates ~$1.5B in loans with gross NPAs below 0.5%, using conservative LTVs and mark-to-market margin calls. Financially, it reported ₹4.5B (~$50M) net revenue and ₹340M (~$3.78M) profit after tax in FY ended March 2025, with H1 current-year revenue up ~30% and profit up ~39%.
Key Facts:
- Article title: “Even as global crop prices fall, India’s Arya.ag is attracting investors — and staying profitable.”
- Arya.ag provides near-farm storage, enables farmers to borrow against stored grain, and connects them to a broader buyer pool to avoid forced post-harvest selling.
Linux is good now
Hacker News · Read Original
Mainstream PC gaming media is now explicitly endorsing Linux desktop use, citing improved usability and gaming viability, and pointing to Steam’s Linux share reaching 3.2% (an all-time high for the second month running). The core driver is not only performance/compatibility (e.g., Proton) but user resentment toward Windows “ownership” erosion (upsells, AI features, nag screens). Practitioner reports are mixed: some operators report fewer issues than Windows in real deployments, while others cite frequent game-specific breakage and per-title troubleshooting. This creates a near-term product opportunity around “Linux gaming reliability” (preflight checks, per-game fixes, and managed configurations) rather than another general-purpose distro pitch.
Key Facts:
- Signal source is Hacker News linking to a PCGamer article titled “Linux is good now.”
- The author reports daily usability improvements on Linux and claims they “never had to dip into the command line” while using Bazzite for gaming.
Market Pulse
The reaction on Hacker News highlights a nuanced perspective among tech founders, focusing on both the rapid pace of technological progress and the pragmatic concerns surrounding safety and overuse. The discussion reflects a mature understanding of the importance of operational controls, particularly the use of restricted permissions when running agents. This indicates a shift towards prioritizing secure deployment over merely enhancing model capabilities. Founders should be aware that while innovation speed is critical, ensuring safe and responsible use of technology is equally vital for long-term success.
The emphasis on the local-vs-cloud gap for reliable tool calling underscores a strategic consideration for deployment. As builders consider the trade-offs between local and cloud solutions, it is crucial to balance performance reliability with cost and accessibility. This aspect is becoming increasingly important as more enterprises seek scalable and secure solutions. Founders need to focus on developing infrastructure that addresses these constraints without compromising on efficiency, which could provide a competitive edge in the market.
Investor enthusiasm, as evidenced by the recent $81M Series D funding round, suggests strong market confidence despite broader economic challenges, such as the down-cycle in global agricultural commodity prices. This investment signals that stakeholders are prioritizing technological advancements and operational robustness over short-term market fluctuations. Founders should interpret this as an opportunity to attract investment by demonstrating both innovation and a clear path to operational maturity.
In summary, the current landscape presents a complex environment where speed and innovation must be balanced with safety and strategic deployment decisions. Tech founders are encouraged to focus on building robust, secure systems that address operational constraints while appealing to investor interests. By doing so, they will be better positioned to navigate the challenges of the market and leverage investment opportunities effectively.
Explore the full intelligence dashboard
Open Intelligence Dashboard