Question 1

What is Alpha Intelligence and how does it predict tech trends?

Accepted Answer

Alpha Intelligence is ASOF's prediction system that analyzes early signals from ArXiv research papers, USPTO patents, VC blog posts, Wikipedia pageviews, and DOE research to identify emerging tech trends 6-24 months before they become mainstream. Each prediction is scored 0-100 based on evidence strength, market timing, and cross-source validation.

Question 2

How accurate are ASOF's tech trend predictions?

Accepted Answer

ASOF Alpha predictions are falsifiable with specific verification dates. Each prediction includes a 6-month verification window, measurable success criteria, and is tracked publicly. Predictions are scored by GPT-5.2 analysis and refined through a multi-stage verification pipeline analyzing 5 independent data sources.

Question 3

What data sources does Alpha Intelligence use for predictions?

Accepted Answer

Alpha Intelligence analyzes 5 primary sources: ArXiv academic papers (research breakthroughs), USPTO patent filings (commercial intent), VC blog posts from top firms like a16z and Sequoia (investment thesis), Wikipedia pageview spikes (public interest), and DOE/government research funding (policy direction). Cross-referencing these sources identifies high-confidence emerging trends.

Question 4

How often are new Alpha predictions generated?

Accepted Answer

New Alpha predictions are generated weekly through an automated pipeline that crawls fresh data from all 5 sources, analyzes content with GPT-4o-mini, and applies GPT-5.2 refinement. Predictions are tracked in an append-only system, ensuring historical accuracy can be verified.

Question 5

Can I use Alpha predictions for investment or business decisions?

Accepted Answer

Alpha predictions identify emerging technology trends based on early signals from research, patents, and VC activity. While designed to spot opportunities 6-24 months ahead, they should be used as one input among many for investment or business decisions. Each prediction includes confidence scores, evidence sources, and specific verification criteria for due diligence.

Question 6

What makes ASOF predictions different from other trend forecasts?

Accepted Answer

Unlike vague annual predictions, ASOF Alpha predictions are falsifiable with specific dates and measurable outcomes. Each prediction is generated from 5 independent data sources, includes a confidence score, lists evidence, and has a public verification date. This accountability separates data-driven prediction from speculation.